Take it from me.
I am one, and I’m fairly sure those I talk to about rugby league are absolutely sick of hearing me ask the same question every week, as if I were a broken record.
The last couple of weeks in particular have been absolutely diabolical.
That loss to the Dolphins was one of the most passive defensive efforts in recent memory. The Dragons quite literally stood on their tryline for most of the game and relied on first contact to slow down some of the NRL’s best attacking weapons.
Needless to say, the in-form Dolphins racked up the points like they were going out of style.
Then there was last weekend.
Line speed wasn’t the secret to a first half lead for the Dragons over the Cronulla Sharks, but it sure was the all too painfully obvious problem in the second half as the Sharks got back into, and then won, the contest despite playing miles below their best.
Just ask my colleague, the Sharks-mad Dan Nichols, what he thinks of his Shire side and their recent form. It isn’t pretty.
It all stems back to a game early in the season, when the Dragons beat an understrength Melbourne Storm.
It was regarded as one of the most famous wins the club have had in a long, long time, and rightly so. Beating the Storm is no mean feat for any team, but even more so when you spend a majority of the game camped on your own goal line.
On that occasion though, Melbourne were missing Jahrome Hughes, it was wet, and Tyran Wishart had a shocker in the number seven.
That, combined with the quality of contact on the line, led from the likes of Valentine Holmes, Damien Cook and Clint Gutherson that afternoon from St George Illawarra saw the joint-venture outfit cling on for a narrow win.
But it was that quality of contact which seems to have convinced coach Shane Flanagan that it’s all that’s needed, and that his team will be quite fine simply giving up metres in bunches.
It doesn’t work that way though, as the Red V have found out on more than one occasion in recent weeks, and now, the stats can prove the problem.
The Dragons concede more metres per set than any club in the competition.
They also give up the 14th highest amount of metres per game, and are 11th worst in post contact metres.
Average metres conceded
1. Canterbury Bulldogs – 1460.83
2. Melbourne Storm – 1508.42
3. Brisbane Broncos – 1566.31
4. Canberra Raiders – 1589.86
5. Manly Sea Eagles – 1593.36
6. The Dolphins – 1603.14
7. Penrith Panthers – 1624.38
8. New Zealand Warriors – 1630.00
9. Cronulla Sharks – 1638.93
10. Sydney Roosters – 1683.92
11. Wests Tigers – 1738.15
12. North Queensland Cowboys – 1785.00
13. Parramatta Eels – 1802.15
14. St George Illawarra Dragons – 1827.54
15. Gold Coast Titans – 1840.31
16. Newcastle Knights – 1866.07
17. South Sydney Rabbitohs – 1898.15
Average set distance conceded
1. Canterbury Bulldogs – 36.18
2. Brisbane Broncos – 37.32
3. Melbourne Storm – 37.96
4. Penrith Panthers – 38.43
5. New Zealand Warriors – 38.67
6. Canberra Raiders – 39.10
7. Manly Sea Eagles – 39.82
8. North Queensland Cowboys – 39.98
9. Cronulla Sharks – 40.77
10. The Dolphins – 41.10
11. Sydney Roosters – 41.30
12. Parramatta Eels – 42.74
13. Wests Tigers – 43.00
14. Newcastle Knights – 43.54
15. Gold Coast Titans – 43.55
16. South Sydney Rabbitohs – 45.04
17. St George Illawarra Dragons – 45.44
Average post contact metres conceded
1. Canterbury Bulldogs – 478.17
2. Melbourne Storm – 489.50
3. Manly Sea Eagles – 507.21
4. Brisbane Broncos – 512.15
5. Cronulla Sharks – 514.00
6. Canberra Raiders – 531.50
7. New Zealand Warriors – 542.85
8. Sydney Roosters – 548.15
9. Penrith Panthers – 555.77
10. The Dolphins – 565.93
11. St George Illawarra Dragons – 570.00
12. Parramatta Eels – 571.69
13. North Queensland Cowboys – 573.15
14. Wests Tigers – 574.69
15. Gold Coast Titans – 600.31
16. South Sydney Rabbitohs – 616.08
17. Newcastle Knights – 646.14
What you immediately see there is that the table-topping Canterbury Bulldogs are number one in all three stats.
They might be able to put up points in a hurry, but make no mistake, they have been built off their defence this year.
The other usual suspects – namely the Melbourne Storm – are close enough to the top of all three categories, while the Canberra Raiders and New Zealand Warriors are also in the top half of all three stat lines.
What will then surprise you is that the Dragons, in fact, lead the competition in tackle breaks conceded. The Bulldogs though? Couldn’t care less.
There are two ways to play defensive. Up and in your face, aggressive, or laid back and make sure of your tackles. The Dragons choose the later, and as shown below, it’s simply not working.
Average tackle breaks conceded
1. St George Illawarra Dragons – 25.00
2. Melbourne Storm – 27.00
3. Canberra Raiders – 27.79
4. Cronulla Sharks – 27.86
5. Brisbane Broncos – 29.08
6. Sydney Roosters – 29.54
7. Manly Sea Eagles – 30.79
8. The Dolphins – 31.21
9. New Zealand Warriors – 31.77
10. Canterbury Bulldogs – 32.33
11. Parramatta Eels – 32.85
12. Newcastle Knights – 33.64
13. North Queensland Cowboys – 34.08
14. Penrith Panthers – 34.54
15. Gold Coast Titans – 35.92
16. Wests Tigers – 37.00
17. South Sydney Rabbitohs – 37.54
What becomes clear with these stats is that coach Flanagan is more interested in the contact his side is making on ball runners, rather than where the game is being played.
While a number of high-ranking sides are near the top of that stat, the fact that the Dragons are conceding two fewer tackle breaks per game in 2025 than their nearest rivals, while also conceding more metres per set than any team, should have alarm bells ringing in Wollongong.
It might have worked against the Storm at Kogarah, but it’s not the kind of thing that will work week in and week out, and that is hardly a surprise.
The NRL continues to get faster and faster. Every year, the rules change to reduce stoppages, increase fatigue, and ensure the game is played at breakneck speed.
That makes scramble defence harder and harder to play, particularly as the season drags on and players are turning around off short turnarounds and the like.
Maybe the Dragons simply don’t have the personnel or energy levels to get up in their opposition’s faces and stop the march down field.
Maybe there are other factors at play – a shallow kicking game, outside backs who don’t run the ball back hard enough, and a forward pack who struggle to hold their own.
The Dragons will improve as their kids in the forwards – led by Hamish Stewart and Loko Pasifiki Tonga – gain experience, but not if the way they are being coaches is to be passive, let opposition teams park on their line and go from there.
It makes it hard to defend, and it makes it equally hard to attack when you’re constantly bringing the ball off your own line.
There is no surprise teams like the Panthers over the last four years, the Bulldogs this year, or the Melbourne Storm for the best part of two decades win when they play the game exactly where, and at the pace, they want to play it at.
For the Dragons, the bye round must bring tactical changes to the way they defend. A more up and in your face approach against the one we have seen so far this year.
Without it, they will be resigned to continuing their slide down the ladder with occasional wins where fans will ask how it happened.
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